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Win chances

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Head-to-head this season

Most likely final scores

Regular season

Track Record

Power rankings

#	Team	GP	Record	GF–GA	Rating	Likely range	Offense	Defense	Form	Schedule	Clutch	PP%	PK%	Special teams

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Season projection

Deep Dive Stats

Team	GP	1st		2nd		3rd		Total		PP	PP%	PK%	PP score	PK score	ST score	SHG for–against	Scored first (won)	PIM/game
Team	GP	GF	GA	GF	GA	GF	GA	GF	GA	PP	PP%	PK%	PP score	PK score	ST score	SHG for–against	Scored first (won)	PIM/game

GF and GA are goals for and against in each period, from games with a box score on file; Total includes overtime. A number is coloured when a team won (green) or lost (red) that period overall. The bottom row adds up every goal scored in each period for the teams shown, with the per-game average.

PP is power-play goals / chances, from games with a box score on file. Chances are estimated from the penalty log: coincidental penalties cancel; each other minor, double minor or major counts as one power play. PK% is the share of times shorthanded without allowing a goal. PP score and PK score are goals per game gained (+) or lost (−) compared with the average team in the same league, counting both how often a team gets or takes penalties and how well it converts or kills them; ST score adds the two plus net shorthanded goals. Teams with no box scores on file are left out.

Records are wins–losses–ties in league games. Scoring-first and score-after-each-period records come from games with a box score on file; one-goal and 3+ goal games use every league game. Green = won most of them, red = lost most.

Penalties counted are minors, double minors and majors (the ones that give a power play), per game, from games with a box score on file. Net = penalties drawn minus taken per game: positive means a team gets more power plays than it gives up. Types follow the rulebook: physical (checking, roughing, elbowing…), stick (slashing, high-sticking, tripping…), restraining (holding, hooking, interference…).

Rating = goals per game better (+) or worse (−) than an average league team, from the power rankings. Form = goals per game above or below what the ratings expected over the last 3 league games. Schedule played and ahead = average rating of opponents faced and still to face (higher = tougher). Top half / bottom half use the current power rankings.

How it works

Every score links two teams

Each team gets an offense and a defense number. A game's expected goals come from one team's offense against the other's defense, plus a home-ice bump. All 16 teams are solved together, so beating a strong team is worth more than beating a weak one, and those chains run across the whole league.

Early in the season each team has only 2 to 5 games, so ratings are pulled toward league average until the results prove otherwise. How hard to pull was tuned by predicting each played game with that game held out.

Momentum

From ratings to a score

Goals are treated as random arrivals at each team's expected rate. That gives the chance of every final score, from which come the win, tie and loss odds and the most likely results. The big number is the expected goals, rounded.

Track record so far

League games after the first dozen were re-predicted using only earlier games: